North Korea's Long-Range Rocket 'A Success'

Rocket Is Propaganda Coup For Kim

Updated: 5:20am UK, Wednesday 12 December 2012

North Korea had two points to prove with its latest rocket launch.

The first was that it had successfully overcome the technical problems that led to the embarrassing failure of an identical launch in April this year.

The second is that the country has indeed put a satellite into space, which would confirm its long-standing claim that all this is about pursuing a peaceful space programme.

It appears to have succeeded with the first point. The rocket remained airborne for a considerable period. It followed the planned and published trajectory and the three "stages" of the rocket separated and fell to the ocean as scheduled.

April's rocket was airborne for barely over a minute before it disintegrated and fell into the sea off South Korea. This time the rocket travelled for about 3,000km (1,864 miles).

The North Koreans claim to have succeeded in putting a satellite being carried by the rocket into orbit.

This is harder for them to prove. On two previous occasions, officials in the North Korean capital Pyongyang have said they have put satellites into space. But international observers including the US and Russia have found no evidence of this.

Pyongyang is yet to provide images of a working satellite being loaded into the rocket and that rocket then being launched. Even if they did, they would then need to prove that the satellite was in orbit. Only then can their claim that this is about pursuing a peaceful space programme begin to stand up.

The US  and its allies, including the UK, believe the rocket launch is a straightforward test of North Korea's ballistic missile technology. They say the "space programme" claim is simply a cover.

North Korea has been conducting underground nuclear tests for some time. A combination of those tests with the successful launch and flight of a rocket would give the country somewhat of a credible nuclear deterrent. If it is creating ballistic missiles that can carry nuclear weapons, it could threaten areas as far away as the west coast of the US.

The timing of this launch is very significant. December 19 is the first anniversary of the death of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il, the father of the current leader Kim Jong-un. December 19 also marks the presidential election in South Korea and the Japanese election is on December 16.

The launch will prompt a wave of propaganda within North Korea. It is designed to solidify the leadership of Kim Jong-un, who is in his early-30s and hugely inexperienced.

Pyongyang announced an intention to launch this latest rocket earlier this month. It gave a launch window of between December 10 and December 21. Last weekend, it extended that window to December 29 citing technical difficulties. The latest launch therefore caught people somewhat by surprise.

Within North Korea, a closed society with no access to international news, there will have been no announcements of the plan in case it failed again. The first North Koreans would have heard of the launch was this morning in a special broadcast on North Korean state TV.

What can the international community do now? Further sanctions perhaps, but they are unlikely to have much of an effect: North Korea is already among the most sanctioned countries in the world.

Pressure on China will no doubt come. Beijing is North Korea's only real ally. The Chinese leadership expressed concern about this latest launch plan, but only because its priority is stability in the region.

The removal of the Kim regime and a North Korea unified with the South would only add to America's clout in the region.

For Pyongyang's part, this launch will provide a massive boost of confidence. Kim Jong-un and those behind him may now use this confidence and perceived new status to engage with the West in order to secure much needed economic assistance. The problem is, Western governments will never believe the claim that this is all about a space programme.

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