The Reason Dave Does Not Want Jean-Claude
Updated: 4:03pm UK, Thursday 26 June 2014
By Anushka Asthana, Political Correspondent
Why is David Cameron preparing to make an almighty fuss in Brussels tomorrow? Arguably it is all about this man:
Nigel Farage, the UKIP leader, whose "political earthquake" in May left the Prime Minister and those around him with jangled nerves. Downing Street sources say the European election tells the story of an electorate that wants to loosen the binds of the EU.
Mr Cameron wants to lead that effort. In fact, he has staked his political credibility on a promise to reform Britain's relationship with the EU and then put the country's membership to a public vote in 2017.
The Prime Minister wants to campaign for the UK to stay a part of the European project - but he can only do that he if he achieves a substantive renegotiation.
And that is why he is so desperate to stand in the way of Jean-Claude Juncker from becoming the most powerful EU politician. He fears that the elevation of the former Luxembourg Prime Minister to the presidency of the European Commission could hinder his plans because he considers him an arch-federalist who represents a Europe of the past.
Sources say Mr Cameron was buoyed in his opposition of Mr Juncker by the belief (a belief that may have come from a conversation) - that he had the support of the German Chancellor.
Observers say Angela Merkel is no fan of Mr Juncker's. But it's felt the Prime Minister overplayed his hand by so publicly and viscerally opposing the candidate.
That forced Ms Merkel into a corner. After all her government is part of the EPP centre-right grouping in Europe - which had publicly stated that Mr Juncker was its candidate before the May elections.
Proponents argue that EPP parties dominated in May after naming their European Commission. Democracy, they therefore add, means not interpreting those elections as the British have but in fact placing Mr Juncker in the top job.
Ms Merkel has been under pressure from her country's equivalent of the Sun- the Bild Zeitung which ran an editorial warning "Juncker must become president".
Under pressure at home Mrs Merkel chose a boat trip on a Swedish lake to tell Mr Cameron to back off.
By then it looked like support was fading away although he was still hopeful that other countries such as France, Italy or Sweden could come behind him. It wasn't to be.
Next a group of nine centre-left governments swung behind Mr Juncker, arguing that the EPP result in the elections was enough to mean he ought to succeed. Francoise Hollande delivered the conclusion in a public statement that was humiliating for Mr Cameron. With Italy gone too, next Sweden appeared to back off.
Isolated, Mr Cameron decided he wouldn't concede. No 10 sources indicated that he was angry, pointing out that the world leaders of the European council had always agreed on a consensual candidate.
They pointed out that in 2004 the UK backed down on pushing the candidacy of Chris Patten because France wasn't keen. To make a point the Prime Minister is preparing to force an unprecedented vote of the Council. It is a vote he is widely expected to lose. So why do it?
Sources say it is to lay out the fact that this is no consensus and to force leaders to justify their own support for Mr Juncker. Commentators ask if it is really a play designed to please his own domestic audience – UKIP supporters who might think it makes him more likely to back the Tories.
Some criticise Mr Cameron's decision – promised before the last election to pull his own party out of the EPP grouping. He argued it was too federalist on EU running contrary to the Conservatives own view. But if he had been part of it – perhaps he might have influenced the choice of candidate that he now so vehemently opposes.
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